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Thinking · Module 4
Cognitive Bias Cards
The quiet traps that distort good reasoning from the inside.
8 cards
- 1Confirmation BiasOnce you believe something, you start noticing evidence that agrees with it and quietly skipping evidence that doesn't.
- 2AnchoringThe first number you see quietly becomes the number everything else gets judged against; even when it has nothing to do with actual value.
- 3OverconfidenceFeeling sure and being right are two different things; and the gap between them is usually invisible from the inside.
- 4Recency BiasThe most recent event looms largest in memory, crowding out older events that were just as important, or more.
- 5Loss AversionLosing something hurts roughly twice as much as gaining the same amount feels good; which quietly distorts decisions in favor of avoiding any loss at all.
- 6Herd MentalityReasoning changes when everyone around you is doing the same thing; the crowd's confidence quietly substitutes for your own.
- 7Sunk Cost FallacyMoney or effort already spent is gone either way; the only real question is what to do from here, not what you've already put in.
- 8Hindsight BiasOnce you know how something turned out, it feels like you always knew it would; even when, at the time, it was genuinely uncertain.