Cognitive Bias Cards · Card 3

Overconfidence

Certainty is a feeling.A track record is evidence.

Feeling sure and being right are two different things; and the gap between them is usually invisible from the inside.

In Practice

A trader who feels 90% sure about a call is often right closer to half the time; the feeling of certainty doesn't move with actual accuracy.

Generic Example

Most drivers rate themselves as above-average; a statistical impossibility that shows how little felt confidence tracks reality.

Ask yourself

How sure do I feel about this; and separately, how often have I actually been right before?

Shows up in Biases