← Cognitive Bias Cards
Cognitive Bias Cards · Card 8
Hindsight Bias
Once you know how something turned out, it feels like you always knew it would — even when, at the time, it was genuinely uncertain.
Before
Genuinely uncertain
After
"I knew it all along"
In Practice
After a crash, it feels obvious the signs were "right there" — but almost no one was saying that with real confidence beforehand.
Generic Example
After a team loses, it feels obvious they were going to — even though before the match, most people genuinely didn't know.
Did I actually believe this before it happened — or only after?
Shows up in Learning from Mistakes