← Cognitive Bias Cards
Cognitive Bias Cards · Card 8
Hindsight Bias
Once you know, it feels obvious.It wasn't, at the time.
- Before
- After
- Almost no one was sure
- It feels like you knew
Once you know how something turned out, it feels like you always knew it would; even when, at the time, it was genuinely uncertain.
Before
Genuinely uncertain
After
"I knew it all along"
In Practice
After a crash, it feels obvious the signs were "right there"; but almost no one was saying that with real confidence beforehand.
Generic Example
After a team loses, it feels obvious they were going to; even though before the match, most people genuinely didn't know.
Ask yourself
Did I actually believe this before it happened; or only after?
Shows up in Learning from Mistakes