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Cognitive Bias Cards · Card 1

Confirmation Bias

You notice what agrees.You skip what doesn't.

Belief first
Testing it
Reads only the bullish articles
Looks for the warning signs

Once you believe something, you start noticing evidence that agrees with it and quietly skipping evidence that doesn't.


How it feelsclear, straight, certainWhat's actually happeningbent toward what I already believed
In Practice

After buying a stock, it's easy to read only the bullish articles about it and skim past the warning signs; the belief came first, the "research" just confirmed it.

Generic Example

Once you decide you don't like a movie five minutes in, you start noticing everything wrong with it and stop noticing what's working.

Ask yourself

Am I actually testing this belief, or just collecting reasons I already wanted to be true?

Shows up in Biases