Decision Frameworks
Short processes for actually making the call.
8 cards
Reversibility Filter
Before deciding, ask whether this is a two-way door you can walk back through, or a one-way door you can't — and match your caution to the answer.
ViewPre-Mortem Question
Before deciding, imagine it's already failed, and ask why — surfacing risks you'd never spot while still feeling optimistic.
ViewExpected Value Thinking
Weigh outcomes by how likely they are, not just by how big they look — a small chance of a huge loss can outweigh a large chance of a small gain.
ViewBase Rate Thinking
Before trusting one loud, specific story, ask what usually happens in situations like this — the quiet average is often more honest than the exciting exception.
ViewThe 24-Hour Rule
If a decision can survive waiting 24 hours, wait — urgency is usually a feeling, not a fact.
ViewThe One-Sentence Test
If you can't explain your reasoning in one plain sentence a stranger would understand, you probably don't understand it well enough to act on it yet.
ViewPros/Cons Isn't Enough
A long list of reasons isn't the same as good reasoning — weigh how much each reason actually matters, don't just count them.
ViewThe Default-Action Test
Before deciding, ask what happens if you decide nothing at all — sometimes the default is quietly already the better choice.
View