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Thinking · Module 3
Decision Frameworks
Short processes for actually making the call.
8 cards
- 1Reversibility FilterBefore deciding, ask whether this is a two-way door you can walk back through, or a one-way door you can't; and match your caution to the answer.
- 2Pre-Mortem QuestionBefore deciding, imagine it's already failed, and ask why; surfacing risks you'd never spot while still feeling optimistic.
- 3Expected Value ThinkingWeigh outcomes by how likely they are, not just by how big they look; a small chance of a huge loss can outweigh a large chance of a small gain.
- 4Base Rate ThinkingBefore trusting one loud, specific story, ask what usually happens in situations like this; the quiet average is often more honest than the exciting exception.
- 5The 24-Hour RuleIf a decision can survive waiting 24 hours, wait; urgency is usually a feeling, not a fact.
- 6The One-Sentence TestIf you can't explain your reasoning in one plain sentence a stranger would understand, you probably don't understand it well enough to act on it yet.
- 7Pros/Cons Isn't EnoughA long list of reasons isn't the same as good reasoning; weigh how much each reason actually matters, don't just count them.
- 8The Default-Action TestBefore deciding, ask what happens if you decide nothing at all; sometimes the default is quietly already the better choice.