Maetis
Decision Frameworks
Decision Frameworks · Card 2

Pre-Mortem Question

Before deciding, imagine it's already failed, and ask why — surfacing risks you'd never spot while still feeling optimistic.

Imagine it failed
Ask why
Fix it now
In Practice

Before taking a new position, imagine it's down 30% in six months and ask what would have caused that — then check if that risk is one you're actually willing to hold.

Generic Example

Before a big trip, imagine it went badly and ask why — missed connections, no travel insurance — then fix those specific gaps now.

If this decision fails, what's the most likely reason — and have I actually addressed it?