← Decision Frameworks
Decision Frameworks · Card 2
Pre-Mortem Question
Suppose it failed, six months on.What caused it?
- While optimistic
- After imagining failure
- The risks stay hidden
- The causes come into view
Before deciding, imagine it's already failed, and ask why; surfacing risks you'd never spot while still feeling optimistic.
Imagine it failed
Ask why
Fix it now
In Practice
Before taking a new position, imagine it's down 30% in six months and ask what would have caused that; then check if that risk is one you're actually willing to hold.
Generic Example
Before a big trip, imagine it went badly and ask why, missed connections, no travel insurance, then fix those specific gaps now.
Ask yourself
If this decision fails, what's the most likely reason; and have I actually addressed it?
Shows up in Decision Frameworks