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Mental Models · Card 7
Second-Order Thinking
Ask not just what happens next, but what happens after that — the consequence of the consequence.
Action
Effect
Effect of that effect
In Practice
Selling in a panic stops today's loss. But it also locks in that loss and often means missing the recovery — the effect of the effect.
Generic Example
Skipping a workout today feels like more free time. A month of skipped workouts becomes a habit that's hard to restart.
If this works exactly as planned, what happens next — and what happens after that?