Maetis
Mental Models
Mental Models · Card 7

Second-Order Thinking

Ask not just what happens next, but what happens after that — the consequence of the consequence.

Action
Effect
Effect of that effect
In Practice

Selling in a panic stops today's loss. But it also locks in that loss and often means missing the recovery — the effect of the effect.

Generic Example

Skipping a workout today feels like more free time. A month of skipped workouts becomes a habit that's hard to restart.

If this works exactly as planned, what happens next — and what happens after that?