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Mental Models · Card 1
Inversion
Start from how it could fail.Rule those out first.
- The usual question
- The inverted question
- What will make me rich?
- What would wipe me out?
Instead of only asking how to succeed, ask what would guarantee failure; then spend your effort avoiding exactly that.
Ask How to Win
Chase every upside
Ask How to Lose
Name the failure, then avoid it
In Practice
Instead of asking what stock will make you rich, ask what would wipe you out, no emergency fund, all your money in one stock, borrowed money in the market, then simply don't do those things.
Generic Example
Instead of asking how to have a great trip, ask what would ruin it, missing a flight, no travel insurance, and rule those out first.
Ask yourself
What would guarantee this decision fails; and am I doing any of that right now?
Shows up in Decision Frameworks