The Decision Portfolio
Every tool in this Level was practiced on Rohan, Priya, Meera; someone else's decision. This is the one exercise that isn't about them. Pick one real, currently-pending decision of your own, investing, trading, or otherwise, and run it through the seven fields below, before you know how it turns out.
Fill this in now
Write your answers in a notebook, a phone note, or a doc; wherever you'll actually keep it. This page doesn't save anything; it's the template, not the record.
When you're making this decision; write it down before you know how it turns out.
From: Decision Journals
One plain sentence: what are you actually deciding?
From: Decision Journals
Is this a two-way door you can walk back through, or a one-way door? Let the answer set how much thinking this deserves.
From: Decision Frameworks
What are you taking for granted here; and does it actually hold up if you trace it back to bedrock facts, not convention?
From: First-Principles Thinking
What are the realistic options, not just yes or no?
From: Probabilistic Thinking
Imagine this has already turned out to be a mistake. What's the most likely reason?
From: Decision Frameworks
A realistic range of what might happen, not one confident number dressed up as a forecast.
From: Decision Journals
Come back to this later
Once there's a real result, weeks or months from now, whenever this decision actually resolves, add these two fields to the same entry. Not before. Judging a decision before its outcome exists is just guessing twice.
What actually happened, once there's something to report.
From: Performance Reviews
Knowing only what you knew on the date above, would you make this same call again? Judge the reasoning, not the result.
From: Learning from Mistakes
This is the actual test of everything Level 8 taught: not whether you can name the Reversibility Filter or the Pre-Mortem Question on a quiz, but whether you reach for them on a decision that's actually yours. One completed entry is worth more than a perfect score on every question that came before it.